How do goalscorer bets work?
A goalscorer bet is a wager on a named player scoring. First goalscorer needs that player to score the match’s first goal, anytime goalscorer needs at least one goal at any point, and last goalscorer needs the final goal. Own goals, substitutes and non-starters are settled under rules that vary by bookmaker.
What types of goalscorer bet are there?
Player markets are popular in football (soccer in the US) because they turn a match into a question about one person. The common versions are:
- First goalscorer. The player must score the first goal of the match. Any other first scorer, or a 0-0, loses the bet.
- Anytime goalscorer. The player must score at least once during normal time. It does not matter when, or who scored before.
- Last goalscorer. The player must score the final goal of the match.
- Two or more goals, or a hat-trick. The player must score at least two, or at least three, goals.
Some bookmakers also offer “to score in the first half”, “to score or assist” and “first goalscorer of a team”. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs normally do not count, but that is a rule to check, not to assume.
How are own goals and substitutes handled?
This is where goalscorer bets differ most between bookmakers, so read the rules before betting:
- Own goals. These usually do not count for any player. For first goalscorer bets, many bookmakers ignore an own goal and settle on the next player to score, while others treat it differently.
- Non-starters. If your player does not take part at all, many bookmakers void the bet and return the stake.
- Late substitutes. For first goalscorer, a player who comes on after the first goal has already been scored is often treated as a losing bet, because they had their chance to enter the market. Rules on this vary.
- No goalscorer. In a 0-0, every first, last and anytime goalscorer bet loses. Some bookmakers list “no goalscorer” as its own selection.
Why are first goalscorer odds so long?
Because many things have to happen in the right order. Your player’s team has to score first, and then your player has to be the one who scores it, ahead of every teammate.
Here is a hypothetical example for an invented striker, “Player A”, with no link to any real player:
| Market | Decimal odds | Implied probability (1 / odds) |
|---|---|---|
| Anytime goalscorer | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| First goalscorer | 6.00 | 16.7% |
| Last goalscorer | 6.00 | 16.7% |
A 5-unit stake on Player A as first goalscorer at 6.00 returns 5 × 6.00 = 30 units if he scores first, a profit of 25 units. The same 5 units on anytime goalscorer at 2.50 returns 12.5 units, a profit of 7.5 units.
The anytime price implies about a 40% chance of scoring at all. The first goalscorer price implies about 16.7%, well under half of that, because scoring is not enough: he has to score before anyone else. The guide on implied probability explains the 1 / odds conversion and why bookmaker prices include a margin.
How do you think about the chance of a first goal?
Break it into steps. Suppose, hypothetically, you estimate:
- a 92% chance that the match has at least one goal,
- a 60% chance that, if there is a goal, Player A’s team scores first,
- a 30% chance that, if his team scores first, Player A is the scorer.
Multiply the steps: 0.92 × 0.60 × 0.30 = 0.1656, or about 16.6%. That is close to the 16.7% implied by odds of 6.00, so on these invented numbers the price is roughly in line with the estimate, before taking the margin into account.
Each step is a guess, and a small error in any of them changes the answer a lot. This step-by-step method is the same one used for tickets with several legs, covered in the guide on combined probability.
What should you watch out for?
- Team news. A player who starts on the bench has much less chance of scoring first. Confirm the line-up.
- Penalty takers. Whoever takes penalties for a team has extra scoring chances.
- Stake size. Long odds mean long losing runs are normal. Keep stakes small and fixed, for example a fraction of a betting unit.
- Rule differences. Own goals, substitutes and dead heats can be settled differently from one bookmaker to the next.
Where WIN Betting fits
WIN Betting, a football predictions app for iOS and Android made by MICOM TECH, does not cover goalscorer markets. It focuses on team and match markets: 1X2, both teams to score, Over/Under 0.5 to 4.5 goals, double chance, clean sheet, corners, cards, handicap, half-time and half-time/full-time, each shown with the app’s probability. If you want a goals angle in the app, the both teams to score and Over/Under markets are the closest fit.
18+. Betting involves risk; no prediction is guaranteed. If gambling stops being fun, visit BeGambleAware or call 1-800-GAMBLER in the US.