How do you work out the chance that a whole ticket wins?
Every leg of a ticket has to win, so you multiply the chance of each leg. Two legs at 73% and 58% give 0.73 × 0.58 = 0.4234, or 42.34%. This assumes the legs are independent. Legs from the same match are usually linked, so simple multiplication can overstate or understate the real chance.
Why do you multiply the probabilities?
A ticket, also called an accumulator or parlay, only pays if every selection wins. If the first leg wins 73% of the time, the second leg only matters in those cases. Of those, it wins 58% of the time. So the whole ticket wins 58% of 73%, which is 0.73 × 0.58 = 0.4234.
Turn each percentage into a decimal first (73% becomes 0.73), multiply, then turn the result back into a percentage.
How fast does the chance fall as you add legs?
Faster than most people expect. Here is what happens when every leg is rated 70% and the legs are treated as independent:
| Legs | Calculation | Chance the ticket wins |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.70 | 70.0% |
| 2 | 0.70 × 0.70 | 49.0% |
| 3 | 0.70 × 0.70 × 0.70 | 34.3% |
| 4 | 0.70⁴ | 24.0% |
| 5 | 0.70⁵ | 16.8% |
Two legs that each look likely already make a ticket that is slightly more likely to lose than win. By five legs, a ticket built from 70% picks wins about 1 time in 6.
How do combined odds compare with combined probability?
The odds multiply in the same way. Take two hypothetical legs:
| Leg | Decimal odds | Implied probability (1 / odds) | Estimated probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leg 1 | 1.30 | 76.9% | 73% |
| Leg 2 | 1.60 | 62.5% | 58% |
| Ticket | 1.30 × 1.60 = 2.08 | 1 / 2.08 = 48.1% | 0.73 × 0.58 = 42.34% |
A 10-unit stake at 2.08 returns 20.8 units if both legs win. On these estimates, though, the ticket wins about 42% of the time while the price implies about 48%, so the price looks short. Multiplying estimate by odds gives 0.4234 × 2.08 = 0.88, below 1. The guide on implied probability explains this comparison, and the confidence score guide covers where estimates like 73% come from.
A small gap on each leg compounds across the ticket. Each leg here is only a few points short; combined, the gap is almost six points.
What does “independent” mean?
Two events are independent when the result of one tells you nothing about the other. Matches in different leagues, played by unrelated teams, are close to independent. Knowing that one game finished 2-0 does not change the chance of a result in another.
Multiplying only gives the right answer under that assumption. When legs are linked, you need the chance of the second leg given that the first has already won, and that can be quite different from its chance on its own.
Why are legs from the same match correlated?
Because they depend on the same goals, the same cards and the same flow of play. Two hypothetical examples show the effect in both directions:
Positive correlation. Say both teams to score is rated 55% and Over 2.5 goals is rated 52%. Multiplying gives 0.55 × 0.52 = 0.286, or 28.6%. But if both teams score, the match already has at least two goals, so a third becomes much more likely. If Over 2.5 happens in, say, 70% of matches where both teams score, the real joint chance is 0.55 × 0.70 = 0.385, or 38.5%. Simple multiplication understated it.
Negative correlation. Both teams to score and Under 1.5 goals can never both win: if both teams score, there are at least two goals. The true joint chance is 0%, whatever the product of the two separate figures suggests.
This is why many bookmakers either block same-match combinations or price them separately as same-game bets, rather than multiplying the single odds. When you compare markets on one fixture, treat them as alternatives, not as independent legs.
What should you take from this?
- Fewer legs keep the chance higher. Each added leg multiplies the risk.
- Check that legs are from different matches before trusting a multiplied figure.
- Compare the combined estimate with the combined price, not just the legs one by one.
- Keep stakes small, because even a well-built ticket loses often.
Where WIN Betting fits
WIN Betting, a football (soccer in the US) predictions app for iOS and Android made by MICOM TECH, publishes three daily tickets, labelled safe, medium and risky. Its AI chat can also build a ticket around a target odds and shows both the combined odds and the combined probability, for example 73% × 58% = 42.34% for two legs treated as independent. Use that figure as an estimate, keeping the independence assumption in mind.
18+. Betting involves risk; no prediction is guaranteed. If gambling stops being fun, visit BeGambleAware or call 1-800-GAMBLER in the US.