What are ROI and yield in betting?
Yield is your profit divided by the total amount you have staked, shown as a percentage. ROI (return on investment) is often used to mean the same thing, though some people divide profit by their starting bankroll instead. Both tell you how much you won or lost for every £1 or $1 you bet.
How do you calculate yield?
The formula is simple:
Yield = profit ÷ total staked × 100
Profit means what you got back minus what you put in, across all bets, winners and losers. Here are five hypothetical football (soccer in the US) bets:
| Bet | Stake | Decimal odds | Result | Returned | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | £10 | 2.00 | Won | £20 | +£10 |
| 2 | £10 | 1.50 | Lost | £0 | −£10 |
| 3 | £20 | 1.80 | Won | £36 | +£16 |
| 4 | £10 | 3.00 | Lost | £0 | −£10 |
| 5 | £10 | 2.50 | Won | £25 | +£15 |
| Total | £60 | £81 | +£21 |
Profit is £81 returned − £60 staked = £21. Yield is £21 ÷ £60 = 0.35, or 35%. On average, each £1 staked made 35p.
Do not read much into this. Five bets is a tiny sample, and one result going the other way would change the picture completely. If bet 3 had lost, profit would be £21 − £36 = −£15, and the yield would be −£15 ÷ £60 = −25%.
What is the difference between ROI and yield?
In betting, many people use the two words for the same thing. When they differ, ROI usually means profit divided by your starting bankroll, the money you set aside for betting.
Take a longer hypothetical run: 200 bets of £10, so £2,000 staked in total, ending with a profit of £60. You started with a bankroll of £250.
| Measure | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Yield (profit ÷ total staked) | £60 ÷ £2,000 | 3% |
| ROI on bankroll (profit ÷ starting bankroll) | £60 ÷ £250 | 24% |
Same bets, same profit, very different numbers. That is why you should always ask what a percentage is divided by. A tipster quoting “24% ROI” and one quoting “3% yield” could be describing the same record. When you judge a tipster, yield is the fairer number, because it does not depend on how big the bankroll was.
Why do tipsters use units?
A unit is a fixed stake, often 1% or 2% of a bankroll. Recording results in units, such as “+12 units from 100 picks”, lets people compare records without knowing anyone’s real stake. With 1-unit stakes, yield is simply units of profit ÷ number of picks: 12 ÷ 100 = 12%.
If stakes vary, for example 1 unit on some picks and 3 units on others, you need total units staked, not the number of picks.
What is a realistic yield?
Be careful with any big number. The bookmaker’s margin works against you on every bet. Imagine a market where both outcomes are a true 50/50 and each is priced at 1.91. Your expected return per £1 is 0.50 × 1.91 = £0.955, so the expected yield is −4.5%, even before you make any mistakes.
So a yield that stays above zero over hundreds of bets is hard to achieve, and a very high yield over a short run is more likely luck than skill. Any record shown over a few dozen bets can swing a long way in either direction.
Does a confidence score change the maths?
Not directly. Yield is measured after the results are in. A confidence score is an estimate made before the match. You can combine them, though: if a pick has a 60% estimated chance and odds of 1.80, the expected return per £1 is 0.60 × 1.80 = £1.08, an expected yield of +8% on that estimate. If the estimate is wrong, so is the expected yield.
What are common mistakes when tracking yield?
- Leaving out losing bets or “test” bets that went badly.
- Counting free bets as if you staked your own money.
- Mixing markets. A yield on corners and a yield on accumulators tell you different things, so track them separately.
- Stopping the count after a good run, which makes any record look better than it is.
- Judging too early. Wait for a large sample before drawing any conclusions.
Where WIN Betting fits
WIN Betting is a football predictions app for iOS and Android, made by MICOM TECH. It includes AI tipster profiles, which are AI models with their own betting styles, not real people, and their picks and results are tracked in the app. That gives you a record you can measure with the yield formula above. The strategy section also has a betting guide and a short course if you want to go further.
18+. Betting involves risk; no prediction is guaranteed. If gambling stops being fun, visit BeGambleAware or call 1-800-GAMBLER in the US.